Betting Update; Newcastle v Portsmouth with the bookmakers making Newcastle their 11/10 favourites

Alan Shearer has got to turn it around sometime – hasn’t he?

[ClickPress, Thu Apr 23 2009] The Newcastle legend has earmarked maximum points from the Magpies last 3 home games for survival – against Middlesbrough, Fulham and starting this Monday night against Portsmouth - and given comments coming out of the dressing room this week, he appears to have the players behind him 100%.

But despite their desperation for the points, fanatical home support and star-studded squad, why are some firms odds-on (10/11) about a home win here? Shearer’s appointment has created no tangible affect on results yet – just 1 point from 3 games – and their home form has remained consistently awful all season. Just 4 wins from a possible 16 St James’ Park fixtures is not survival form – and the Geordie nation haven’t seen their side win a home match since December 21st 2008 – a full 8 games ago.

And Portsmouth (16/5) are hardly ‘there for the taking’ – only Manchester United and Chelsea have won in the 9 matches Paul Hart has had in charge and in that time they have already emerged from Stoke (2-2), Middlesbrough (1-1) and Hull (0-0) undefeated. Though the visitors are nowhere near as in need of the points – lying 6 points clear of trouble in 14th place – they are still not out of the woods completely and will certainly be up for it here. Playing at Old Trafford on Wednesday, however, may have taken some energy out of the small squad which is a slight negative for the travelling south coast support.

One area where Newcastle appear to have been significantly overestimated in the betting is in the quality of their defence. A home clean sheet is as short as 5/4 and though at the time of writing the exchanges are not at full liquidity, laying at anything like that price would represent fantastic value. Newcastle have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 16 PL games and have the 3rd worst home defence in the division, shipping 27 goals in 16 such fixtures. Just 1 shut-out in their last 10 at St James’ is nothing short of woeful and given that Shearer is yet to over-see a clean sheet in his 3 matches in charge, it seems the opposition will always have the chance of notching at least once. Pompey are capable of scoring themselves, finding the net at least once in 6 of the 7 games against non top four sides under Hart, and as a result a price of 10/11 on both teams to score looks to be a sound selection.

Recommended Bets - 2 pts - Both Teams To Score, 10/11



• All prices correct at time of writing.

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