Betting Update; Newcastle v Birmingham with the bookmakers making Newcastle their 0.95/1 favourites

Betting Update; Newcastle v Birmingham with the bookmakers making Newcastle their 0.95/1 favourites

[ClickPress, Wed Jan 17 2007] After a last-gasp equaliser 11 days ago, at St Andrews, Steve Bruce’s Birmingham now travel to St James’ Park to try to get by Newcastle in this FA Cup third round replay, with the reward for the winners a home tie against Reading.


The hosts could probably do without this extra game after their squad has been hit by a number of injuries, but after their amazing fight back victory last Sunday at Spurs the camp should be still buzzing.

Going forward the Toon look more than capable of piercing any defence, and they have proved this by scoring two against Man Utd and three over Spurs, but for me they still look a bit frail at the back. Roeder has been forced to play a relatively young and inexperienced back line and although they are getting better by the game they can still be very much exposed.

Their opponents Birmingham are flying high at the top of the Championship, and for me showed enough in the first game to warrant plenty of respect against a make-shift Newcastle.

The other thing to point out is that Birmingham will come here as fresh as a daisy after not playing since that game 11 days ago. Newcastle however had a tough battle at the Lane with Spurs and could very well suffer from the bounce factor. The Blues should also not have too many problems in defence with the well-oiled trio of Matthew Upson, Bruno N’Gotty and keeper Maik Taylor at the heart of the backline.

The bookmakers have Newcastle as the understandable jollies to win the game in 90 mins, but at around 4/6 I don’t think they are a backable price. They are unbeaten now in their last three games, but two of those have been high scoring draws (2-2). So to me the 5/2 for a stalemate against a fresh Birmingham side might be the way to go. I can’t see Newcastle running away with this and the draw should at least give you a run for your money for the full 90mins.

If you fancy Birmingham to cause a mini upset then they are around the 4/1, but although I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they did (they won 1-0 at St James’ in 2003) I think there are other betting opportunities to be had.

The one thing that stood out when looking back at recent games that these sides have been involved in is the number of goals that have been scored in them. Nine of Birmingham’s last ten have had over 2.5 goals, while seven of Newcastle’s last eight have also yielded over that amount. So at around Evens this will be a maximum bet for me here.

In the scoring markets Birmingham’s Gary McSheffery has netted seven goals in his last eight games and at 11/4 he caught the eye in the anytime market, while at big looking prices I think Newcastle should be covered to win the game in extra-time at 15/2 and at 9/1 to win on penalties with a tight game expected.
Recommended bets

4pts Over 2.5 goals
2pts Draw
1pt Newcastle to win in Extra-time
1pt Newcastle to win on pens
* All prices correct at time of writing.
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