Congress Should Read Writing On The Wall

For the ruling Congress Party the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh could not have come at a worse time

[ClickPress, Mon Mar 12 2007] For the ruling Congress Party the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh could not have come at a worse time. Badly bruised by the avoidable defeat in Punjab and Uttranchal, harassed by high inflation, saddled with an organization in utter disarray, deteriorating relations with its most important coalition partner – the Left – and faced with alienation of the urban, particularly young voters, the party finds itself in a very vulnerable state. It has none but itself to blame for its present predicament and unless it indulges in sincere introspection and takes corrective measures to refurbish its image, it may have to pay dearly in the next Parliamentary election. Buoyed by its victory in Punjab and Uttaranchal and, possibly, in Delhi also, its main rival, the BJP now sees a good prospect for itself, having overcome the trauma of voters' rejection in the last election.

The last two-and-a-half years have shown that the United Progressive Alliance is more disunited than united in solving national problems. The rift with the Left parties, which is wide open for reasons already well known, has affected its credibility. Most of the economic reforms measures have been put on hold, complaining that there is no prior consultation with it, nor are decisions taken collectively, the Left are already on the warpath. It is only when it threatened a "political breach" with the Congress that "Operation Mulayam" was halted in Uttar Pradesh and President's rule not imposed. True, the tangible cost – loss of Left goodwill and consequences of any public confrontation with the Head of State – would far outweigh any gains the Congress hoped for in UP.

Though the Congress has always yielded to Left parties' pressure, it will be too much for it to expect that its gesture will be reciprocated by their being more responsive to the Government's economic agenda. Having survived on an ideology of negativism, deprivation and continued impoverishment of the people in the states now ruled by it, the Left has no intention of giving up its "revolutionary" fervour. It cannot align with the BJP, or communal forces, but it does not find itself comfortable in the company of the Congress party either which has the largest political organization in the country, thus posing a threat to all other parties. There are indications that the Congress will increasingly feel the heat from the Left parties, now joined by the Samajwadi Party also, in Parliament in future.

The voters in Punjab and Uttranchal were not impressed by the economic jargon used by the Finance Minister to explain the rising prices of essential commodities. The Prime Minister also finds it hard to explain to the people that inflation is a sign of a strong and rapidly growing economy, which the Government intends to tackle. But the Central Budget for 2007-2008 gave no indication of a strategy to hold the price line and ensure economic growth with justice and equity. One can comfort oneself by saying that the adverse electoral verdict was not a referendum on the Central Government and hence, there was no need to feel despondent. Therefore, pass on the buck to the defeated state governments when they have little control over policies that lead to inflation and shortages or on the way the Congress party manages its affairs and handles the state units. It will be a costly blunder if the Congress Party fails to take note of the obvious causes of its debacle and adopt a corrective strategy right from now, if the UPA wants to retain power at the Centre in 2009.

Perhaps, those who were deluded by the erroneous public opinion polls giving the Congress a comfortable lead over all other parties will now be restrained from gambling with a mid-term election. The Congress leadership should also resist the temptation to find scapegoats among AICC functionaries for not keeping it posted with the true state of affairs in various parts of the country, or indulge in a drastic reshuffle of the Council of Ministers and appoint one set of non-performers to replace another set of non-performers, when its hands are bound by the compulsions of coalition politics. Also, the Central Party leadership should not give out the impression of keeping a distance from the Prime Minister and his ministers and issue them public directives on reducing petroleum prices, etc. The voters ask if the Party leadership and the government are unable to function cohesively and act in unison, they will find it difficult to pull along with the coalition partners, all of whom have their own survival agendas, often conflicting with the interests of the Congress.

It is a pity that appropriate lessons have not been drawn from the defeat of the Vajpayee-led NDA Government in the last election. India did not "shine" for the vast majority of the people, despite the costly media blitz then, nor is it shining now. The economy has grown, but income disparities also have increased. Bad agriculture has led to acute shortages of food-grains, edible oils and pulses, hitting the vulnerable sections extremely hard. Delay in taking corrective measures, which are being applied even now in a very halting and uncoordinated manner, has compounded the hardship of the urban dwellers, reeling under the impact of higher food, fuel and services costs. Capt. Amarendra Singh admitted after his defeat that the urban voter had jilted the Congress, which is why it was defeated.

Casteism remains the bane of Indian society but, unfortunately, it is being perpetuated through extended Constitutional guarantees and Supreme Court judgments. When legislation to reserve jobs in government services and seats in government-financed, as well as, private education institutions, including the technical ones came up before Parliament, it was unanimously passed. But when a section of the students felt agitated over merit being given a go by in admissions and came out in the streets, the BJP and its front organizations backed the agitators and turned it into a mass protest against the UPA Government. Whether the Congress leadership will care to know it or not, students actively participated in anti-Congress mobilization in the two states which gave a new direction to the campaign. The Government finds it difficult even now to implement the Supreme Court's directive to keep the "creamy layer' outside the scope of reservations and is likely to pay the political price for it.

These, as well as, the earlier municipals elections in Maharashtra should serve as an eye opener to the Congress because the urban electorate is seen moving away from it and the rural electorate finds itself comfortable with regional parties, thus increasing the dependence of national parties, on local forces. The Congress has no choice but to fight the next election in alliance with other like-minded and secular parties. The manner in which the situation in UP is developing shows that the Congress does not stand to gain much and the benefit of any diminution of the Samajwadi Party's strength is likely to go to the BSP and the BJP, which fared very poorly in the last Assembly election. The strategy and tactics adopted by the Congress so far are unlikely to pay, or benefit the UPA.

Coming to the organizational side, factional fights in the state units of the party are taking a heavy toll on its electoral prospects. In Uttranchal, it went to the poll without a chief ministerial candidate; the former incumbent N D Tiwari had submitted his resignation to the High Command month ago and did not himself contest. More damage was done to the Congress by infighting, rather than any spectacular campaigning by the BJP: the government was presented to it virtually on a platter. In Punjab, Chief Minister Amarendra Singh was continuously targeted by his deputy Mrs. Bhattal to the glee of a section of the High Command and his distress calls went unheeded. He also committed the tactical blunder of slapping corruption cases against Prakash Singh Badal and other Akali leaders, which won them sympathy. He kept his distance from the party rank and file.

A similar scenario may repeat in Delhi, where her tormentors in the party with the High Command’s tacit backing have targeted Sheila Diskshit, despite her creditable performance. A divided party is least qualified to counter the anti-incumbency factor, the effect of price rise, deteriorating urban living conditions and take on the BJP and an emerging third front. Those who believe that the proposed Third Front and the BSP will take away the anti-Congress vote, thus affecting BJP's chances are living in a world of make-believe. There is still time for the party to forge unity, remove the causes of discontent, to the extent possible, and put up a credible and united fight.

It remains to be seen whether the Congress Party has learnt its lessons and observed the direction of the electoral wind. It should not repeat 1994-95 when the late P. V. Narasimha Rao did not allow the Congress to benefit from being in power and handed the government virtually on a platter to the BJP. It is a wake up call for the Congress and the UPA and both should work for their collective survival. The Congress should be more responsive and ensure that the benefits of economic reform percolate to the people.

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