Visiongain says 'The world has woken up to the threat of Avian flu, but is the Pharma industry ready

Earlier this year, statistics from the WHO, estimated that 150 million people would die from the current outbreak of bird flu. Britain’s chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, recently announced that the government’s contingency planning was based on bird flu killing 50,000 people in the UK. This number must be considered against the 12,000 people who die each year during the ‘normal’ flu season.

[ClickPress, Fri Oct 21 2005] Earlier this year, statistics from the WHO, estimated that 150 million people would die from the current outbreak of bird flu. Britain’s chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, recently announced that the government’s contingency planning was based on bird flu killing 50,000 people in the UK. This number must be considered against the 12,000 people who die each year during the ‘normal’ flu season.

Currently there are only two antivirals that might be effective in the event of a bird flu pandemic: Tamiflu from Roche and GSK’s Relenza. Roche appears unable to produce its antiviral Tamiflu in sufficient quantities, and there is already evidence that the H5N1 virus has developed resistance to Tamiflu. GSK’s inhaled antiviral, Relenza, has been ordered in significant quantities by several governments, including one order for 7 million doses bought by the German government.

Roche has come under some pressure to increase production of Tamiflu. The UK government has ordered 14.6 million courses of Tamiflu, an antiviral from Roche. However, it currently only has a stockpile of 2.5 million courses and is not expecting the outstanding order until 2006. In response Roche has increased production but claim that production is a difficult process, and could not be easily replicated by other companies. However, the Indian generic drug company, Cipla, has announced that it is ready to produce generic Tamiflu, and the Taiwanese government has also stated that it is able to produce the antiviral. The debate concerning patent protection versus public health – much the same as occurred at the onset of the AIDS pandemic – is again an issue for the pharmaceutical industry.

Visiongain believes that Tamiflu is important financially for Roche. It is predicted to reach revenues of over $1 billion, which would assist their high revenue producing Pegasys (Hepatitis C) in replacing income from their rapidly ageing blockbusters. As Roche begins to discuss license agreements for the manufacture of Tamiflu with other companies, its share price will be closely monitored. GSK’s share price reached its highest level for three years this week, the highest increase of all the FTSE companies.

However, neither Tamiflu or Relenza offers an instant cure for flu and relief from its debilitating symptoms. They do reduce the length and severity of symptoms, Relenza has slightly reduced side effects, whilst Tamiflu also appears to be effective as a preventative measure.

A related issue concerns the production of a vaccine for bird flu. Dutch company Akzo Nobel has begun developing a vaccine for bird flu at their biotech unit, Nobilan International. However, clinical trials with humans will not start until 2006, and its effectiveness against a strain that is able to pass from human to human is unknown. Chiron recently announced that they would be unable to meet manufacturing targets for Fluvarin. This vaccine for human flu would have been influential in reducing the risk of the H5N1 virus mutating to a human transmittable form.

Visiongain believes that the world has now woken up to the threat of bird flu. The risk is increasing and the hazard is high - fatality rates are currently over 50%. Patricia Hewitt has stated that the UK government has put aside £200 million to fight bird flu and pharmaceutical companies await further orders for these potentially life saving drugs. It is unlikely that bird flu will result in the cataclysmic deaths initially stated by WHO. However, many people will die from this disease that has already spread across the world.

Notes for Editors

If you are interested in a more detailed overview of this report, please send an e-mail to Sara Peerun sara.peerun@visiongain.com or phone her on 020 8767 6711 or see www.visiongainintelligence.com

About visiongain

Visiongain is one of the fastest growing and most innovative independent media companies in Europe. Based in London, UK, visiongain produces a host of business-2-business conferences, newsletters, management reports and e-zines focusing on the Telecoms, Pharmaceutical and Defence sectors.

Visiongain publishes reports produced by its in-house analysts, who are qualified experts in their field. Visiongain has firmly established itself as the first port-of-call for the business professional, who needs independent, high quality, original material to rely and depend on.

For more information on visiongain, please visit the website: www.visiongain.com or www.visiongainintelligence.com

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