Recently released market study: Ghana Agribusiness Report Q3 2013

This quarter we have revised down our short-term and long-term forecasts for Ghana's cocoa sector. The sector has been affected by poor weather, especially in Western regions; up to early March, production estimates for 2012/13 are slightly lower year-on-year, with the end of the main crop harvest soon approaching. Over the long term, we believe the sector will face relatively strong obstacles, including labour shortages, aging trees and lower prices than in previous years. Government support for cocoa in Ghana is strong compared with other parts of West Africa, though more investment will be required for the sector to grow in the coming years. The country's poultry sector will receive a boost from recent investments by Nutreco, but we see the country remaining a net importer over the long term.

Key Forecasts

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Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/589144_ghana_agribusiness_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301
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* Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 10.5% to 950,000 tonnes. This is a downgrade from our previous growth forecast owing to aging trees and the expectation that low prices will reduce farm revenues.
* Corn production growth to 2016/17: 40.0% to 2.24mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, a 50% fertiliser subsidy introduced by the government in 2008 is improving the situation.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 8.6% (up from 7.1% in 2012; predicted to average 8.1% from 2013 to 2017).
* 2013 central bank policy rate: 15.50% end-2013 (up from 15.00% in 2012).
* 2013 consumer price inflation (average): 9.9% (up from 9.2% in 2012)

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