Belgium Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q2 2013 - New Report Available

Our forecast sees the Belgian pharmaceutical market contracting over the next three years, only returning to year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in 2015. We have based this view on a combination of patent expirations and the government's focus on cost-containment in the sphere of public spending. Nevertheless, patented medicines will continue to represent the bulk of prescription spending in the country, thus continuing to create commercial opportunities for the manufacturers of novel products.

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: EUR5.96bn (US$7.57bn) in 2012 to EUR5.84bn (US$7.30bn) in 2013; -2.0% in local currency terms and -3.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q113.
* Healthcare: EUR39.93bn (US$50.71bn) in 2012 to EUR40.95bn (US$51.19bn) in 2013; +2.6% in local currency terms and +1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q113.

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Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/589093_belgium_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=301
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Risk/Reward Rating: Belgium's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q213 is unchanged from the previous quarter. This is also the case for all other countries in BMI's proprietary system that ranks pharmaceutical markets according to attractiveness to multinational drugmakers. A minor re-weighting of one of the RRR components is being implemented to improve the tool, and the adjusted scores for all markets will be published in the Q313 updates of the Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare reports. Belgium has an RRR score of 66.5 out of 100, making it the sixth most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Western European region, which covers ten main markets.

Key Trends And Developments

* In January 2013, Belgian Galapagos acquired UK's structure-based drug discovery firm Cangenix, with a view to augment drug designing ability and address a growing client need of its subsidiary Argenta. Galapagos will pay a total cash consideration of GBP1.0mn (US$1.6mn) for the buyout, which will allow integration of Cangenix' business assets, personnel and service contracts to Argenta. The acquisition terms also include a potential earn-out payment of GBP440,000 (US$703,000) to be made by Galapagos upon realisation of certain conditions.

BMI Economic View: The Belgian economy has lost momentum and will post anaemic growth in 2013. The impact on private sector confidence of the previous escalation in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has been palatable and will continue to underpin weak data in the coming quarters. However, we view constructively recent policy developments in the eurozone, which should support a firming recovery towards the end of 2013.

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