New Market Report: Malaysia Retail Report Q3 2013

The Malaysian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Malaysia's economic outlook of limited room for additional fiscal stimulus by the government.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Malaysian retail market while minimising investment risk, and explores the impact of deteriorating global economic conditions on the Malaysian consumer as well as on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Malaysian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Malaysian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 44% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 46%. Malaysia comes third (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for risk. Amongst the retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 56.1% between 2013 and 2017, from US$15.82bn to US$24.71bn as a growing affluent middle- and upper-income consumer base embraces the concept. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the potential easing of hypermarket regulations.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/589202_malaysia_retail_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301

Over the past quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

BMI forecasts that economic growth will remain relatively subdued at 3.8% for 2012 before witnessing a mild pickup towards 4.6% in 2013.

BMI expects private consumption to grow at a relatively resilient pace of 4.8% in 2012 before accelerating towards 5.5% in 2013, mainly due to the positive effects of cash handouts and increased welfare spending by the government. However, we note that the risk of a sustained collapse in exports over the coming months could lead to widespread job losses in export-driven sectors. Uncertainties over the outlook for employment could, in turn, prompt households to cut back on spending.

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