Now Available: Bahrain Retail Report Q2 2013

The Bahrain Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concern about the impact on Bahrain's economic outlook of the ongoing political crisis.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Bahrain retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the downturn in fixed investment on the Bahraini consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Bahrain retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Bahrain comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI's Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/596792_bahrain_retail_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=301

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by nearly 44% between 2013 and 2017, from US$1.21bn to US$1.74bn, as demand for packaged and convenience foods continues to pick up on the back of busier lifestyles and more Westernised eating habits.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in Bahrain's business-friendly regulatory environment, which has succeeded in attracting a number of multinational food companies.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* BMI believes that Bahrain's economy will continue its steady recovery throughout 2013, with loose fiscal and monetary policy helping to support business activity in the non-oil sector. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2013 and 3.9% in 2014, compared with an estimated 3.0% in 2012.
* Although credit growth remains in double digits, the pace of expansion is slowing after having peaked at 19.2% year-on-year in Q212. Moreover, although government spending will remain expansionary, we do not expect any further one-off stimulus measures such as the cash handouts and public-sector pay rises seen since early 2011. As a result, we are projecting a slight slowdown in household consumption in 2013, and have pencilled in growth of 4.5%, compared with an estimated 5.0% in 2012.

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