New Market Report: Ghana Telecommunications Report Q2 2013

Ghana's mobile penetration exceeded 100% at the end of 2012 in line with BMI's expectations. We expect the sector to maintain strong growth over our forecast period to 2017, driven by multiple SIM ownership and extension of network coverage to underserved areas, but caution that regular inactive SIM discounting will temper growth in the future. This will increase the downward pressure on fixed-line connections, which recorded slowing annual growth rates in the three years to December 2012.

In view of the foregoing, we retain our view that the internet sector will be the main growth driver in the overall telecoms market owing to the rising demand for advanced data services and increasing investment in much needed wireless and wireline broadband network infrastructure.

Key Data

* The Ghanaian mobile market grew by 2.9% q-o-q in Q412 to bring total growth in 2012 to 21%.
* Mobile ARPU contracted by 21.1% in 2012, mainly due to increase in competition, following the launch of commercial services by sixth licensee Glo Ghana.
* The fixed-line market grew by 3.7% in Q412 to reverse losses in the previous quarter and drive overall positive subscriptions growth in the fixed-line sector in 2012.

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Risk/ Reward Ratings

Ghana dropped one place to 5th position on BMI's Risk/Reward ratings table this quarter, behind Nigeria, South Africa, Gabon and Angola. Ghana scores above the regional average in all four of our ratings categories. Its highest score is the Country Risks category, which reflects a strong private consumption growth outlook and political stability, despite the conduct of presidential and parliamentary elections in December 2012.

Key Trends And Developments

Ghana moved a step closer to actualising its digital migration goal with the release of specifications on settop boxes (STBs) for digital terrestrial television (DTT) by the National Communications Authority (NCA) in February 2014. The country will move over to DTT from December 2014, requiring older analogue TVs to convert to digital signals in order to continue to access free-to-air content using an STB. In establishing a clear framework for minimum requirements, the NCA will boost the availability of STBs in Ghana and build a strong market for the devices. BMI also notes that successful and timely digital migration will aid the development of telecoms services in the form of making available much needed spectrum for the provision of high-speed mobile broadband services.

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