Recent Study: Sweden Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2013

While we expect that the Swedish pharmaceutical market will decline in coming years, under pressure from generic medicines, patent expirations and a general climate of cost containment, we remain optimistic about the country's long-term attractiveness. This view covers both consumption (which is supported by well-developed public financing and healthcare systems) and research and development (R&D) initiatives in the country, with global pharmaceutical major AstraZeneca recently confirming its commitment to local R&D activities.

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: SEK35.42bn (US$5.14bn) in 2012 to SEK34.84bn (US$4.95bn) in 2013; -1.6% in local currency terms and -3.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower than previous quarter's projection, partly due to downward change in historical data.
* Healthcare: SEK334.63bn (US$48.57bn) in 2012 to SEK343.04bn (US$48.73bn) in 2013; +2.5% in local currency terms and +0.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower than previous quarter's projection, on account of macroeconomic factors.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/617111_sweden_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301

Risk/Reward Rating: Following a minor re-weighting of one of our proprietary Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) components, implemented to improve the tool's transparency, Sweden is again ranked fifth out of ten key markets surveyed in Western Europe. Sweden's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is a draw, though a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is its small overall market size, which - combined with pressure on pharmaceuticals spending - negatively affects the industry rewards score in particular. Nevertheless, given its high per capita drug expenditure, medicines continue to bring in substantial income for companies operating in the country.

Key Trends And Developments

* In April 2013, Finnish drug retail and wholesale company Oriola-KD signed a deal to purchase Swedish pharmacy chain Medstop Group for EUR176mn (US$229mn), in a bid to expand its presence in Sweden. The deal is likely to increase Oriola's local retail trade market share from 14% to 21%. The transaction, which is subject to regulatory approvals, could be concluded by the end of H113. On account of unfavourable market conditions across Europe, we expect this trend of consolidation in retail and distribution to continue, in combination with an increase in vertical integration of the sectors.

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