Just Released: "Taiwan Metals Report Q3 2013"

Production Growth To Continue

BMI View: We expect moderate growth in Taiwan's steel sector over the coming years following volatile fluctuations in output seen since 2007. Overall, we expect output to reach 22mnt in 2017, an average growth rate of 3.2%

The Taiwanese steel industry is bearing the full brunt of the slowdown in Asian markets with the worst performance in the region so far this year. We expect production to pick up slowly, and forecast moderate growth of 3.2% over the coming years, bringing to an end the volatile swings in output seen since 2007. Output growth will be restricted by continued weakness in steel prices, which we expect to remain in place for the foreseeable future.

Efforts are underway to improve the competitiveness of the Taiwanese steel industry. The China Steel Corporation (CSC) is looking to improve profitability in an increasingly difficult market environment.

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CSC is Taiwan's largest steelmaker, with over 50% of the domestic market. With this in mind it is undertaking reconstruction of its continuous annealing line, which is expected to help produce better products with lower costs and using less electricity. CSC was set to increase its production capacity from 12.5mn tonnes per annum (mntpa) to 15mntpa by the beginning of 2013 as the company completes the expansion of its wholly owned subsidiary, Dragon Steel. Given our negative view on the Chinese economy, it remains to be seen whether CSC will be able to profitably utilise the additional capacity.

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