Report Published: "Libya Oil & Gas Report Q3 2013"

Despite a strong recovery in oil and gas production in 2012, over the longer term growth in both oil and gas production are likely to be more muted as a result of frequent disruptions to oil and gas operations by political unrest in Libya. Significant political risks loom over the country's longer-term outlook, arising from both domestic tensions between the east and the west, and from an emboldened Islamic militant movement in North Africa. This could limit greenfield investment in particular and cap growth in both reserves and production, resulting in the country underperforming below its potential.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/640284_libya_oil_gas_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301

The key trends and developments in Libya's oil and gas sector are:

* We forecast total liquids production to continue on an upward rise; in 2013, production is expected to climb to 1.51mn barrels per day (b/d), rising to 1.70mn b/d in 2017 and 1.99mn b/d by 2022. This is below National Oil Corporation (NOC)'s target for 2.2mn b/d by 2020, however. This conservative outlook is based on expectations that political unrest will hit investment into greenfield projects that are needed to further boost Libya's output beyond our current projections.
* Gas output is forecast to increase from an estimate of 12.0bcm in 2012 to 13.1bcm in 2017 and 17.5bcm by 2022. These are conservative forecasts based on an expectation that attacks on gas plants will continue in the near term, affecting growth prospects in the first half of our forecast period. Growth is expected to pick up in the second half as the political situation slowly stabilises.
* There are both upside and downside risks to these forecasts. An improvement to Libya's political situation could see a gush of investment particularly into greenfield projects, particularly with high oil prices supporting such decisions - we expect the reference basket price of OPEC crude to stay above US $90/bbl over our forecast period. However, a deterioration of political tensions could severely threaten production growth, given the dominance of NOC. As the control of NOC is at the centre of a political struggle between the east and the west, an unfavourable reform of NOC and its organisational structure could see further disruption to Libyan oil and gas production.
* International investment is also a big unknown. Foreign suitors are likely to be attracted by Libya's vast oil and gas reserves, which stood at an estimated at 48.0bn barrels (bbl) and 1.9trn cubic metres (tcm) respectively at the start of 2013. However, political risks, the introduction of new production sharing contracts (PSC), and a revised hydrocarbons law are all likely to affect the country's business environment and consequently, business sentiments.

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