Sudan Defence & Security Report Q3 2013 - New Market Report

Executive Summary

The resumption of oil transit fees from South Sudan will support the country's capacity for increased defence spending, and yet we expect growth to be modest. Nonetheless, after two years of estimated expenditure contraction, a return to growth in 2013 will represent a reversal in trend and signifies the emphasis that the country still places on defence spending as a proportion of total government spending, in spite of the urgent need for increased government consumption elsewhere in the economy.

* We expect Sudan's defence spending in US dollar terms to increase by 3.4% in 2013. This follows two years of expenditure declines.
* We expect defence spending to average 8.8% annually over our five-year forecast period to 2017 with expenditure supported by a return to economic growth. Indeed, we forecast Sudanese GDP growth to average 3.8% annually out to 2017, a marked improvement on the past two years of severe economic contraction.
* We expect defence spending as a proportion of Sudan's total GDP to remain fairly constant over our forecast period at around 4.7-4.8% of GDP.
* Sudan performs poorly in our Middle East & Africa Security Ratings, ranking in 13th place out of 15 markets analysed and ahead of only Yemen and Syria.

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