South Africa Autos Report Q3 2013 - New Report Available

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Aug 02 2013


Despite the weak domestic outlook, South Africa registered a 7.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in new vehicle sales to 53,997 units in May 2013, up 3,750 units from the 50,247 sold in May last year, according to figures released by the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA). Outperforming the segment in May were sales of LCVs, bakkies and minibuses, which grew at 11.1% y-oy, or by 1,425 units, bringing the year-to-date aggregate to 14,031. In May 2013, sales of heavy trucks and buses recorded an increase of 8.6% y-o-y to 136 units. Sales of medium commercial vehicles faced a decline of 0.3%.

BMI is relatively more optimistic about the production outlook for commercial vehicles in particular, as the incentives for producers and consumers are slowly beginning to improve. In line with BMI's long-held view that the local bus industry will be boosted by investment in the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, more big contracts are being awarded. Bus production in South Africa is still below its 2008 peak of over 1,850 units and BMI forecasts that production is unlikely to return to these levels within the forecast period to 2017. BMI has upwardly revised its bus production forecast from 4% y-o-y in 2013, to 5.6%, bringing the total amount of buses produced to 1,310. This growth is set to continue over the 2013-2017 forecast period, with average y-o-y growth expected to come in at 5.6%.

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In addition, incentives for producers and consumers have marginally improved for electric vehicles (EVs), with concerns about the power supply network being addressed by a three-year research project between Eskom the local electricity provider and Nissan Motor. However, BMI maintains that the incentives for manufacturers are still too uncertain and have set the bar too highs in terms of minimum production levels.

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