New Market Study Published: Venezuela Business Forecast Report Q4 2013

We expect near-recessionary economic conditions to prevail over the coming quarters, characterised by a slowdown in private consumption and exports.

We believe recently-elected President Nicolas Maduro will struggle to exert his grip on power in a highly polarised political landscape, and do not rule out an early exit from office, either forcibly or through referendum recall.

We expect Maduro to continue Chavez's policies of elevated social spending, which will result in sizeable fiscal deficits.

Inflation will remain elevated, at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/664876_venezuela_business_forecast_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes

We have significantly downgraded our growth forecast, following a very weak Q113 real GDP growth reading of 0.7% year-on-year. We now forecast real GDP growth to come in at 1.0% in 2013, from our previous 2.6% estimate, and 2.1% in 2004, compared to 2.8% as previously expected.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: Higher-than-expected oil prices and more investorfriendly policies could see real GDP growth exceed our forecast.

Downside Risks: The potential for elevated political tensions to materialise in a wider political crisis could see the economy enter a recession as soon as 2013.

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