New Market Study Published: Hong Kong Business Forecast Report Q4 2013

Against a backdrop of clear signs of a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions in China and Hong Kong's intricate ties with the mainland, we have revised our real GDP growth forecasts. We now expect the economy to expand 2.4% instead of a previous 3.3% in 2013. In 2014, we are forecasting real GDP growth of 3.0%, lower than a previous estimate of 3.6%. This reflects our relatively more downbeat expectations given consensus projections of 3.0% and 3.9% in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

Hong Kong's inflationary pressures to remain relatively well-contained, with food prices likely to remain the only curve ball. Housing rental prices, which have typically fuelled inflation, appeared to be easing.

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The Qianhai-Hong Kong special economic zone will help to bolster Hong Kong's financial sector, and that the sector will continue to be one of the city state's main engines of growth. Additionally, the Hong Kong's banks will see increased opportunities in the offshore yuan services sector which will in turn help to cement its role as the leading global offshore yuan trading centre.

Contrary to some observers, we do not believe there to be any tightening of Hong Kong's political environment by Beijing. The economic significance to the mainland far outweighs any political considerations that the central government may have towards the city. Consequently, we expect Hong Kong to maintain the attractiveness of its business environment.

Hong Kong's demand for universal suffrage and the city's property woes will continue to dominate the country's political environment. While there remains a possibility that Beijing may renege on its pledge to allow universal suffrage in Hong Kong by 2017, we do not expect any material change.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Risk To 2012 Growth Forecast: Should the mainland economy experience a sharper-than-expected slowdown the ripple effect on Hong Kong means that its economy would be disproportionately affected.

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