Thailand Defence & Security Report Q3 2013 - New Market Report

Thailand has been attempting to make progress on two of its principal security problems, with mixed success. Tensions with Cambodia have receded - against the backdrop of an independent hearing at the International Court of Justice concerning the disputed ownership of the Preah Vihear temple, Thailand and Cambodia have taken the initiative and signed a number of agreements designed to boost co-operation and reduce tensions. However, progress on tackling the insurgency in Thailand's deep south - the second of Thailand's security problems - has been harder to achieve. In fact, Bangkok's strategy of opening talks with one of the militant factions appears to have backfired, with violence spiking in the south of the country during Q2.

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The opening of negotiations with the BRN therefore appears to have been a false dawn, with the key actors in the south seemingly not party to the Malaysia-backed talks. For now, the Yingluck Shinawatra administration is pressing on with talks with its BRN interlocutor, but critics are already saying that this approach has failed. Increasingly, there are calls for a comprehensive political solution whereby the Thai government devolves meaningful powers to the southern provinces. But as yet, Bangkok has shown little sign of favouring such an approach.

Another intractable problem for Thai society is the political division that exists between the Thaksin Shinawatra-aligned Red Shirt movement and the royalist-military elite. The relative political and social calm that currently prevails in Thailand looks set to continue in the short-to-medium term. However, the process of reconciliation begun in 2011-12 by the royalist-military elite and the elected Puea Thai administration of Yingluck Shinawatra appear to have stalled over the highly contentious issue of whether to allow former leader Thaksin, Yingluck's brother, to return to Thailand. As long as these issues remain unresolved, the country will be nervous about its political fate, as seen in May/June 2013 when Bangkok was abuzz with rumours of an imminent military coup. While no coup occurred, the military is known to be unhappy with Yingluck's attempts to negotiate in the south and with signals that she may sanction an investigation into the violent clashes between the army and Red Shirt activists in 2011 which claimed around 90 lives.

More broadly, the deep divisions that plunged Thailand into civil strife in 2010 remain and the country remains prone to further instability. The passing of Thailand's long-serving and increasingly frail monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, looms on the horizon as a potentially destabilising event that could plunge Thailand back into turmoil.

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