Kazakhstan Infrastructure Report Q3 2013 - New Market Research Report

Kazakhstan continues to see investment pour into its construction and infrastructure sector as opportunities abound in the oil-rich country. Growth of 4.7% year-on-year is expected in 2013 rising, to 8.45% in 2014. Over the 10-year forecast period to 2022, we expect the industry value to triple, rising from US$14.2bn in 2013 to US$43.9bn by 2022. Long-term political stability is the only major threat however; we caution that Kazakhstan remains vulnerable to external demand dynamics and that political uncertainty could yet threaten economic growth.

Key developments in the sector:

* UAE port operator DP World has announced that it will develop a new free economic zone in Kazakhstan. DP World will develop the Khorgos-Eastern Gates zone and Aktau port in order to establish the largest logistics centre in Eurasia. DP World will invest at least AED3.67bn (US$1bn) in the project.
* The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced that it will provide a US $106mn loan for Kazakhstan. The loan will enable the electricity utility Central Asian Electric Power to modernise its power generators and electricity distribution networks. The operator is responsible for producing approximately 6% of electricity output in the country.
* A new railway line opened between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The US$430mn line is part of a proposed rail corridor between the two countries and Iran. It will enable the transportation of goods such as grain and oil between the countries. The new line runs between Bolashak in Kazakhstan and Serhetyaka in Turkmenistan.

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Kazakhstan will continue to shift its economic, as well as its political, policy focus away from Russia and towards China over the coming years. China is continuing its development and purchase of oil pipelines and fields in Kazakhstan, and the Kazakh government has appeared more open to investment from Beijing rather than Moscow.

We have revised our year-end forecast for the Kazakh refinancing rate from 5.50% to 5.75% as a result of an uptick in consumer price inflation over the past six months, which we project to reach 6.9% year-on-year by end-2013. This is within the target range for inflation, and, with the central bank under pressure to boost domestic demand and maintain currency stability, we do not anticipate a more substantial rate hike than 25 basis points.

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