Market Report, "Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2013", published

BMI View: The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia (ZZZS) is faced with the prospect of cutting back on spending in the face of continuing state deficits. We forecast the country's unemployment rate to climb to almost 15% in 2014, putting significant strain on the ZZZS. Spending cuts, pay freezes and further price reductions are all potential measures that could be employed to reduce these deficits. As a result, we believe healthcare and pharmaceutical spending will not show real growth until 2015 at the earliest.

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: EUR738mn (US$949mn) in 2012 to EUR723mn (US$960mn) in 2013; -2.5% in local currency terms and +0.9% in US dollar terms.
* Healthcare: EUR3.25bn (US$4.18bn) in 2012 to EUR3.20bn (US$4.30bn) in 2013; -1.0% in local currency terms and +2.4% in US dollar terms.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/671040_slovenia_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q4.aspx?afid=301

Risk/Reward Rating

Slovenia's Risk/Reward Ratings score remains weak, with 53.2 out of a total of 100, just above the regional average score of 52. A combination of economic factors and the acknowledgement that the government may retain its focus on cost savings have resulted in a slightly less optimistic outlook for 2013.

Key Trends & Developments

* Krka reported a revenue and profit increase in Q113 on the back of strong export growth; pharmaceutical exports continue to increase as local demand for pharmaceuticals decline.
* In April 2013 Krka Sverige, the Swedish subsidiary of Slovenian drug maker Krka, was sued by two subsidiaries of UK-based drug maker AstraZeneca in a Danish court. The subsidiaries accused Krka Sverige of patent infringement on the active substance esomperazole. The subsidiaries are seeking EUR9.6mn (US$12.55mn) in damages from Krka Sverige.
* In February 2013, the economic development and technology minister of Slovenia announced that he would continue to work towards preserving the state's 25% interest in local pharmaceutical firm Krka. The announcement came after Krka was classified by the government as a company eligible for sale. Krka's management and other parties have expressed concerns over the proposed divestiture.

BMI Economic View: Slovenia's short-term growth outlook has deteriorated further as a crisis in the banking sector and a wave of austerity weigh on economic activity. Real GDP growth recorded its worst output since 2009 in the first quarter of 2013, and we expect conditions to improve only marginally by the end of the year. With unemployment set to rise further, confidence low and uncertainty abound, we expect the recession to continue into 2014 (-0.2%), with only a modest return to growth in 2015 (1.0%).

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