New Market Research Report: Egypt Water Report Q4 2013

Egypt remains politically and economically unsettled and this is likely to affect the water sector in various ways - on the one hand funds are limited, however on the other there is a great deal of public pressure on the government to ensure the provision of basic affordable amenities like drinking water.

Further pressures stem from the continuing international debate over Ethiopia's damn project which would threaten Egypt's Nile resources. BMI is confident that the short-term future of the water market remains secure and lucrative - yet the long-term future of the nation remains precarious, and increasingly dependent on fickle foreign investment and resources.

The government faces a looming threat in the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project, and if completed, Egypt will suffer serious cuts in water resources (18 billion cubic meters annually). Regardless of the outcome of this specific project it is clear that Egypt faces future battles over these resources. The economic development and increased resource needs of many of the African nations along the Nile means that Egypt will need to plan for a potential future where their Nile share is significantly reduced. The government recognizes the threat of this future and has a stated focus on improving water conservation and efficiency projects in the water market.

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The political and economic situation remains precarious within the nation. This quarter has seen a cut in Egypt's credit rating to "CCC" and a reduction in economic forecasts by nearly 1.5% to just 2% annual GDP growth. The political unrest continues to strain the nation as the public suffers severe shortages in fuel, civil unrest and agricultural challenges. In order to retain the balance, the government will have to ensure the continuation of subsidies for key goods and resources including food, fuel, and water, and its ability to do so in the current economic situation will hinge on foreign investment and aid.

The government is still some way from introducing much needed new tariffs, which remains a highly sensitive issue for an administration that is wary of imposing a greater financial burden on the public. In light of the need to placate public opinion - with many agitated by rising prices - there may well be moves over the forecast period to lighten the pricing burden on consumers of water. No explicit moves to reduce water prices have been announced, but BMI anticipates little appetite among policy makers to raise water usage prices.

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