Market Report, "Serbia Food & Drink Report Q4 2013", published

The Serbian economy posted real GDP growth of 2.1% year-on-year in Q113, confirming our expectation that the economy is poised for a modest recovery this year. We continue to forecast full-year growth of 1.2%, which will increase to 3.4% in 2014, driven mainly by a pickup in fixed investment and private consumption.

Headline Industry Data (local currency):

* 2013 per capita food consumption: +3.2%; five-year forecast to 2017: +16.3%.
* 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales: +3.0%; five-year forecast to 2017: +15.0%.
* 2013 soft drinks value sales: +11.5%; five-year forecast to 2017: +76.2%.
* 2013 mass grocery retail sales: +7.5%; five-year forecast to 2017: +37.4%.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/686340_serbia_food_drink_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=301

Key Industry Trends

Veronesi Signs Agreement With Serbian Agroziv: In summer 2013 Serbian poultry producer Agroziv signed a memorandum of understanding with Italian food producer Veronesi on a strategic partnership deal. Veronesi, with turnover of EUR2.7bn in 2012, has no production capacity outside Italy. A deal with Agroziv would mean access to the Russian, Ukrainian and Belarus markets as well as Serbia. Veronesi is to make a detailed legal and economic analysis of Agroziv in the next several months, and if everything goes according to plan, significant investment is likely in early 2014.

Italian Discounter Eurospin Considers Serbia: In summer 2013, Italy's largest discount chain Eurospin revealed that it is considering a launch into the Serbian retail sector. The retailer is to make a detailed analysis of the Serbian market after which it will make a decision on the opportunities and the pace of entry. The retailer has stressed that Serbia is rated positively in the company's development plans. After Italy, Slovenia and Croatia where the retailer already operates stores, Serbia is ranked as the next prospective investment destination.

Key Risks To Outlook

The main risks to our forecast result from fixed investment. It is possible that the growth in the energy and infrastructure industries we expect to see in 2013 takes longer to materialise. In addition, foreign investor interest might remain subdued despite positive developments in the domestic business environment. In this case, we would revise down our forecast for fixed investment growth.

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