Market Report, "Slovakia Autos Report Q4 2013", published

Helped by the fact it is Europe's largest carmaker per capita, Slovakia continues to outpace its larger but beleaguered counterparts in the EU in terms of economic expansion. However, Slovakia still remains the eurozone's second-poorest state and faces similar problems as the rest of the bloc such as budget cuts, tax increases and declines in economic confidence.

In 2012, passenger car production in Slovakia increased 40.7%, to some 900,000 units. In 2013, we forecast production in this segment to increase 8.1%, to 972,900 units. This vehicle production growth, in Slovakia and other CEE states more generally, can be seen in contrast to decreasing production levels in Western Europe as auto manufacturers strive to cut costs amid continuing economic uncertainty in the region. BMI believes that the Western European auto market will remain generally weak in the short-to-medium term, and we expect auto investments in the region to dwindle, in contrast to the generally increasing investor sentiment in the CEE region.

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BMI maintains a fairly bearish outlook for private consumption growth in Slovakia in 2013. Consumer spending declined throughout 2012, and we expect this to continue into 2013. Further, real wage growth is stagnant, and unemployment is steadily increasing on the back of ongoing fiscal austerity measures. This outlook has partly informed our 2013 sales forecast for an 8% decrease in this segment.

BMI maintains a fairly bearish view for the commercial vehicle segment, forecasting a decline of 11.7% in 2013 as the bearish economic picture continues. Indeed, BMI believes that economic growth in the country will continue to slow down somewhat over the course of 2013 on the back of declining domestic demand and contractions in key export markets. Further, we expect manufacturing activity to decline further, and for business confidence to remain poor.

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