New Market Study Published: Brazil Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2013

BMI's view that light vehicle sales would register a more modest expansion in 2013 is playing out, although the traditionally strong summer months have been particularly buoyant. Light vehicle sales rose 6.5% yearon- year (y-o-y) in August to reach a record for the month of 159,004 units. This put sales for 8M13 at 1.2mn units, which is well on the way to the 1.74mn forecast by BMI for 2013, marking the highest sales total since 2002. The twist to August sales, compared with previous months, however, was the outperformance of the passenger car segment.

Passenger car sales in August grew 7.2% y-o-y to 70,836 units, while light truck sales were 5.9% higher yo- y at 88,168 units. Earlier in the year, the boost in light truck sales had been reflected in the outperformance of Ford Motor, General Motors Company (GM) and Chrysler combined (see 'Housing Concerns Weigh On Stellar Truck Growth', May 31). In August, however, their combined sales grew 4.7% y-o-y, compared with 7.9% growth for imported brands.

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BMI still forecasts the light truck market to outperform the car segment in volume terms in 2013, which suggests further gains in market share terms for the Detroit Three. One downside risk, however, is that while a healthy housing market is a positive driver of truck sales in North America, we are more concerned about Canada's housing market than in the US, where we expect the construction industry's contribution to truck sales to be maintained throughout the year.

In terms of production, varying levels of competitiveness are still evident throughout North America. This is also being reflected in production growth through the region, with Canadian light vehicle output down 7% y-o-y in H113, while production in the US and Mexico was up 6% and 5% respectively. As a result of this decline, plus plans by carmakers to move models to other plants, we have revised downward our 2013 production forecast to a contraction of 5.8%, led by an 8% drop in light truck output.

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