Report Published: "Brazil Tourism Report Q1 2014"

The Brazil Tourism Report examines the significant long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, especially as the country is to host first the FIFA Football World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016. However, the report also highlights long-term structural weaknesses facing Brazil's tourism market, particularly in the realm of national transport infrastructure and the shortage of hotels across the country. The latter issue indicates long-term development potential but could lead to supply shortages during the 2014 and 2016 sporting events. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading hotel players in the Brazilian tourism sector as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities.

Preparations for the 2014 FIFA World Cup continue to be a topic of concern for the Brazilian authorities, with the final six of the 12 planned stadia due to be completed by December 2013. Construction has faced several problems, such as delays to bidding for the seating construction in Cuiaba. By September, shortly before an official inspection by FIFA Secretary General Jerome Valcke, five of the six stadia were less than 90% finished, leaving a considerable amount of work to be done. Although the tournament is likely to proceed smoothly in the end, the Brazilian authorities will be concerned that the public delays to construction will undermine the positive view that the country wants to present to potential tourists.

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In addition, heightened protest action in Brazil since mid-2013 has been badly timed for the authorities. These protests reflect a variety of drivers, with teachers, oil workers and dockworkers all going on strike for different reasons. This has resulted in a series of sometimes violent protests in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro requiring police deployment and leading to the virtual shutdown of those city centres. Should these protests prove ongoing, these could disrupt tourist activities in these cities, although tourists are unlinkely to be caught up in the protests themselves.

BMI forecasts, which have been revised, are as follows:

* BMI has upgraded the 2013 tourist arrivals forecast to 5.96mn, or growth of 5.0%. We then expect a surge in arrivals in 2014, to 10.5% growth, as visitors flock to the country for the FIFA World Cup.
* BMI has raised its forecast for outbound air transport passengers to reflect increased investment in airport infrastructure. We are forecasting 98.38mn passengers carried in 2013, or y-o-y growth of 3.97%, rising to 121.5mn by 2017, when year-o-year growth will hit 10.77%.
* BMI has raised its forecast for outbound visitors to the US, the main destination market for Brazilian tourists. By 2017 we expect visitors to the US to top 2mn, well above 952,410 visitors to Argentina, the second largest market.

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