Nigeria Freight Transport Report 2014 - New Report Available

There will be strong growth across all freight sectors in Nigeria in 2014 and through the medium term. There is growing interest in air freight in the country, from regional and international players, there is significant investment going into the ports sector, and the rail freight sector is being relaunched. This will be supported by a growing population with increasing wealth for disposable goods, coupled with a burgeoning non-oil manufacturing sector. While there are risks given infrastructure lags and potential political risk in the run-up to 2015 elections, we are confident that the outlook for the freight transport sector in Nigeria is bright.

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Headline Industry Data

* 2014 air freight tonnes-km forecast to grow by 10.7% and to average 9.9% to 2018.
* 2014 Port of Lagos tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 6.7% and to average 6.0% to 2018.
* 2014 rail freight tonnes-km to grow by 9.6% and to average 9.0% to 2018
. * 2014 trade growth forecast at 7.8% and to average 6. 3% to 2018.

Key Industry Trends

Growing Interest In Air Freight: Nigeria's air freight sector was characterised in 2013 by a host of companies introducing or extending their coverage of the West African giant. This is a trend we believe will continue into 2014; and not only connecting to Europe, as has been the case traditionally. We also see scope for growing numbers of connections both regionally within Africa, but also with the Middle Eastern hubs in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar.

New Ports And Port Expansions To Cater For Growing Container Demand: There have been a number of developments in West African ports. In October 2011, APMT announced it was expanding the capacity of its container terminal at the Lagos port of Apapa to 1mn TEUs, which would make it the largest in terms of capacity in West Africa.

Rail Freight Back On Track: BMI believes that the rejuvenation of Nigeria's railway network, which had decayed over many years of underinvestment and neglect, could help ease some of the woes at the country's ports. The use of rail over trucks to transport containers from maritime facilities could help ease container backlogs and reduce congestion on Nigeria's roads.

Key Risks To Outlook

In terms of downside risk, BMI believes that a concerted effort must be made by West African states if the growing piracy problem in the region is to not escalate any further. Any failure to curb this growing crisis could come to affect regional economic activity, as evidenced by the fact that product tanker companies are now charging charterers premiums to operate in the region.

Other downside risks come from the risk of violence as the 2015 election approaches. Equally, should there be a significant drop in the oil price, the Nigerian consumer could be hit

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