"Jordan Telecommunications Report Q1 2014" now available at Fast Market Research

The Jordanian market recorded double-digit growth in 2013, pushing the mobile penetration rate above 140%. However, this was a mixed bag for operators as new subscriptions were taken out mainly by lower income rural areas and refugees from Syria, thereby increasing the downward pressure on ARPUs. We therefore retain our view that operators will continue to invest in their 3G networks to support a wide range of non-voice service to offset the decline in revenue growth from traditional voice services. The fixed network market will remain under pressure from mobile services, which now accounts for the majority of voice and data subscriptions.

Key Data

* There were 1.172mn net additions in Jordan's mobile market in 9M13, equivalent to a growth of 12.9% in the nine months to September 2013. This brought the penetration rate to 140.6%.
* Mobile ARPU continued its downward trend, as operators reported an average drop of more than 12% in H113.
* The fixed-line sector also contracted in 9M13, with the number of subscriptions shrinking by 6.1% during that period.
* The internet sector remains the strongest performing sector in the telecoms market, following an impressive growth of 39.2% in 9M13.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/754734_jordan_telecommunications_report_q1_2014.aspx?afid=301

Risk/Reward Ratings

Jordan remained in 10th position in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings table for Middle East And North Africa in the Q114 update, with an overall score of 45.7. Jordan scores below the regional average in the Industry Rewards, Country Rewards and Country Risk categories of our ratings table. The government's decision to raise taxes on the telecoms sector poses a downside risk to subscriptions growth and operators' profitability.

Key Trends And Developments

Jordan's government has announced new regulations regarding the registration of prepaid SIM cards in the country. The changes require mobile stores to keep a photocopy of the required identification document, depending on the nationality of the customer. A wide range of documents can be used to buy SIMs, a move aimed at enabling more Syrians, who have crossed into Jordan owing to the ongoing civil war there, to acquire mobile subscriptions. We believe changing requirements for non-nationals is largely a decision to give greater access to Syrians that have fled to the country. Although this will provide a temporary boost to operators' subscriber bases, we caution it will further skew the market towards prepaid subscriptions and increase the downward pressure on ARPUs.

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