Recently released market study: Pakistan Food & Drink Report Q1 2014

Political instability and persistent militant activity will continue to hamper foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan's food and drink industries, detracting all but the largest companies that can withstand such high risks. Nevertheless, we continue to view Pakistan as an important potential longer-term market, provided other factors allow for the rise of consumerism and the expansion of modern retail formats.

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency):

* 2013 per capita food consumption growth = +9.72% year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +9.90%.
* 2013 soft drinks sales growth = +10.60% y-o-y; CAGR to 2017 = +11.88%.
* 2013 alcoholic drinks sales growth = +12.15% y-o-y; CAGR to 2017 = +11.11%.
* 2013 mass grocery retail sales growth = +12.76% y-o-y; CAGR to 2017 = +13.68%.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/763987_pakistan_food_drink_report_q1_2014.aspx?afid=301

Key Company Trends

Pakistan's Onion Exporters Expecting Bumper Exports: In October 2013, The Lahore Times reported that Pakistani onion growers are expected to receive massive orders from Indian importers, given the acute shortages of the vegetable in India following the storms that devastated many crops there. Some 200,000 metric tonnes of onion are expected to be exported, both to India and to other destinations, including Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Malaysia, given that those countries usually rely on imports of onions from India.

Key Risks To Forecasts

Security And Political Risks Remain Elevated: Pakistan is at risk of experiencing years of instability and militant activity, but an outright collapse of the state is unlikely unless the core province of Punjab becomes ungovernable. Under such circumstances, we would not preclude a military coup. Meanwhile, due to its strategic importance, Pakistan's foreign allies will do everything they can to ensure its stability, which will promote a degree of interest in the country's food and drink industries.

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