Spain Autos Report Q2 2014 - New Report Available

In 2013, total vehicle sales in Spain increased 4.2%. BMI forecasts a 9.0% increase in vehicle sales. This comes from an expected 8% increase in the passenger car segment and 14.9% rise in commercial vehicle (CV) sales.

BMI forecast 9% growth in passenger car sales in 2014 on the back of the extension of the vehicle scrappage scheme buoying sentiment and pent-up demand from sustained declines in recent years, despite the country's weak consumer story dampening demand for big ticket purchases.

BMI forecast 15% growth in the LCV segment and 15% growth in heavy truck sales in 2014. We expect the country's construction and manufacturing sectors to remain lacklustre, but we believe that pent-up demand in the segment will help buoy the sector over the year.

In 2013, vehicle production in Spain increased 12.9%. This comes from a 15.1% increase in passenger car output over the year and a 4.3% increase in CV production.

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Spanish autos production is dominated by exports. Indeed, according to data from the Spanish autos association ANFAC, the value of the country's vehicle exports increased some 15% in 2013, to EUR26.2bn (US$36.1bn). This attests to BMI's view that autos production in Spain is becoming increasingly exportorientated, and we believe this segment will lead the recovery in the country's autos sector. Indeed, we expect to see a resurgence in Spanish output on the back of strong fundamentals and a shifting focus to production for export to high-growth markets.

BMI has previously highlighted that automakers are increasingly using Spain as a production-for-export base. The ongoing investment is a sign that Spanish production is reaching a turning point; after a 20.5% drop in 2012, passenger car output increased 15.1% in 2013 on the back of export growth and low base effects. In 2014, we forecast 6.0% growth as exports continue to drive output growth, and we expect to see sustained growth over the remainder of our forecast period until 2018.

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