Now Available: United Kingdom Agribusiness Report Q3 2014

We continue to favour the grain and livestock industries in the UK because of good export opportunities and a strong domestic market. The country became a net importer of wheat in 2012/13 and 2013/14 , but we do not expect this to be the case again in 2014/15 . Indeed, we believe the wheat deficit will be temporary and we continue to expect that the UK's wheat production balance will improve in the coming years. The pig industry could be boosted by a recent trade deal to export to China, and the domestic market is appearing resilient. We see limited growth for the sugar and dairy industries, and note that the recent signature of the EU-Canada free trade agreement will favour local poultry.

Key Forecasts

* Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 19.5% to 15.9mn tonnes. We expect the UK wheat industry to face challenges in the near term owing to increased competition for exports from the Black Sea region, decreasing direct payments to farmers as a result of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, and poor economies of scale on the back of a shift of EU ethanol policy towards non-food biofuels.
* Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 4.0% to 1.9mn tonnes. Poultry meat is often viewed as a cheaper and healthier alternative to beef, for which consumption per capita is largely saturated.
* Milk production growth to 2017/18: 7.7% to 14.9mn tonnes. We expect production to recover moderately; however, we note that EU CAP reforms could make UK farmers less competitive.
* Real GDP growth: 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (from 1.7% y-o-y in 2013).
* Consumer price inflation: 2.0% y-o-y in 2014 (down from 2.6% y-o-y in 2013).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.6% y-o-y decline, to US$26.4bn in 2013/14, forecast to fall on average 1.0% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/837676_united_kingdom_agribusiness_report_q3_2014.aspx?afid=301

Industry Outlook

We maintain our view for 2013/14 wheat production in the UK to decrease significantly in line with estimates from the Department for...

The United Kingdom Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's United Kingdom Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.

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