New Market Report: Peru Freight Transport Report Q3 2014

BMI maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. While we expect real GDP growth to level off at around 5.0% during our forecast period, below its recent trend, significant mineral wealth, attractive investment opportunities at the sector level, and a growing consumer story underpin our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America in the coming years.

Further upside comes from the recently announced plan to heavily invest in Peru's transport network, which BMI believes will help boost the country's freight transport volumes, through providing easier routes to market. However, we caution that perhaps the plan is overly ambitious, and might not quite hit the desired target by the scheduled date. According to Peru's transport and communications minister, Carlos Paredes Rodrígues, USD22bn is set to be invested in the Latin American country's transport and communications sectors by 2016.

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On the downside, given our Asia Country Risk team's expectation that Chinese real GDP growth will trend lower in the coming years, as the economy rebalances away from an investment-led growth model to one in which private consumption plays a larger role, we anticipate that Peru will continue to be hit hard through the trade and investment channels due to weaker Chinese demand, lower average metals prices, and more moderate capital expenditure plans by major mining firms.

Headline Industry Data

* We expect growth of 3.9% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao, to 20.9mn tonnes in 2014.
* We predict air freight volume to increase 4.6%, to 348,000 tonnes in 2014.
* We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow 3.3%, to 1.02mn tonnes-km in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

Rail Link for Bolivia, Brazil and Peru in Development

According to reports, Spanish, French and Bolivian consulting firms are developing a Central Rail Corridor project designed to link Brazil, Bolivia and Peru. The Interamerican Development...

The Peru Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Peru Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

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