Market Report, "Australia Metals Report Q4 2014", published

We expect subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals in Australia as a weakening global commodity market continue s to take its toll on the economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remain s weak.

The slowdown in the metals industry in Australia is best exemplified by monthly crude steel production, which has continued to slide into negative territory following growth in 2013. Weak demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry in H214 and 2015. We do not expect crude to approach pre-crisis levels for many years. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), have embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmes aimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand and declining steel prices.

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Most of Australia's refined metal output is for export, with Asia and particularly China accounting for the largest share. We therefore assign downside risks to our forecasts on the back of a continued slowdown in China's economy. Although economic data from China improved slightly in Q214, we believe this is a temporary phenomenon and expect the downturn for Australia's largest trading partner to resume in 2015. The impact of falling export demand from China in 2013 hinted at the devastating effect further weakness in the Chinese economy will have on the Australian metal sector, as companies fire workers to keep operations profitable and postpone or cancel investment plans. Domestic demand for refined metal production is dependent on the country's economic...

The Australia Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Australia.

BMI's Australia Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Australia.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australia metals market.

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