South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2014 - New Market Study Published

We hold a positive view on the South African agricultural sector and see particular growth potential in the grain and livestock sectors. Both sectors' growth will be boosted by regional export demand. The sugar sector also presents interesting growth opportunities, mainly thanks to renewed investment and improved technologies. Overall, the country's grain and livestock producers have been hit by recent hikes in grain prices and subdued corn supply on the domestic market. Margins have plummeted, and foreign competition for exports has made it even more difficult for producers to stay afloat. However, the recovery is under way. We believe the country's main companies, AFGRI , Rainbow Chicken and Astral Foods , can only see profitability bounce from current subdued levels.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/860680_south_africa_agribusiness_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301

Key Forecasts

* Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 21.9% to 2.4mn tonnes. This is based on our view that macroeconomic fundamentals, together with the increasing use of sugar for biofuels, will have a positive impact on sugar production levels over the long term.
* Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 24.8% to 2.2mn tonnes. As more South African consumers move towards diets containing higher levels of protein, poultry (predominantly chicken but also turkey and duck) is increasingly being viewed as a convenient, healthy and affordable source of nutrition.
* Corn production growth to 2017/18: 12.6% to 13.9mn tonnes. This relatively high growth rate reflects the influence of base effects. Growth will be supported by an improved macroeconomic outlook and the introduction of new corn varieties that generate higher crop yields.
* Real GDP growth: 1.8% in 2014, down from 1.9% in 2013; predicted to average 2.7% over the five years to 2018. GDP per capita is expected to rise to USD7,436 in 2018 (from an estimated USD6,646 in 2013).
* Unemployment: 24.6% in 2014, from 25.0% in 2013
* Consumer price inflation: 6.3% in 2014, up from an average of 5.8% in 2013.
* BMI...

The South Africa Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.

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