New Market Research Report: Egypt Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

Core Views

* One the whole, 2015 will be a relatively positive year for the Egyptian economy, as the currency stabilises and investment returns to the county.
* The fiscal and net export position will improve significantly on the back of fuel subsidy reform. Subsidy cuts will likely be watered down if public unrest occurs on a significant scale, however, the bulk of reform will remain in place.
* Hikes to domestic energy prices will push consumer price inflation back into the double digits by the end of the year.
* Egypt's geopolitical importance will ensure that even if an IMF agreement is delayed for longer than expected, further foreign aid commitments will materialise around the turn of the year. Western powers such as the US and EU have an interest in ensuring the North African country does not experience a more pronounced economic and political crisis. However, it will be donations from the GCC which keeps Egypt afloat this year.
* We do not expect an IMF deal in 2014, as the economic rationale has waned somewhat since the influx of foreign aid and it is politically unpalatable at present.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/871624_egypt_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes

* Following an influx in foreign aid in 2013 as well as subsidy reform Egypt will be avoid a pronounced balance of payments crisis in 2014 and 2015. That said, as the aid inflows are likely to weaken the government's resolve to push ahead with necessary tax and business environment reforms, we do not expect an IMF agreement to be signed in the near term. Our baseline scenario sees the economy expanding by 3.0% in FY2014/15 and 3.8% in FY2015/16.

Key Risks To Outlook

* A failure to secure external financing (whether through the IMF or bilateral aid) raises the risks of a disorderly devaluation of the Egyptian pound.
* Terror attacks, or disturbances caused by the Muslim Brotherhood could have a significant impact on investment and tourism figures.

The Egypt Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Egypt and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Egypt's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Egypt's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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