Romania Metals Report Q4 2014 - New Report Available

Romania's metals sector will continue to see modest growth over the coming years as it slowly recovers from the global downtur n. This is primarily the case for steel, the largest sub - component of Romania's metals sector. With modest growth in both autos production and the country's construction sector , we expect modest growth in steel output over the next five years. In addition, with our expectation for steel prices to head broadly lower over the coming years, we see few sources of encouragement for the sector. Therefore, whilst we forecast modest growth in output, it will remain far off 2007 highs.

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Romanian crude steel output demonstrated modest growth in 2013 of 1.0%, however, production is still more than a third less than pre-2008 levels. We note that output was damaged by Mechel's withdrawal from its Romanian assets. BMI forecasts an acceleration in growth in 2014 at 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), however, to reach 3.39mnt of crude steel. We expect growth to accelerate further by 2.4% in 2015, to reach 3.47mnt.

With positive growth in the metals-intensive sectors of construction and autos - discussed below in further detail - within Romania, we are fairly optimistic these sectors will offer upside support to Romania's steel industry. We see these industries as helping Romania's economy as a whole begin to gain strength from 2014 onwards when we forecast real GDP growth of 2.8% y-o-y. Over the medium term, BMI forecasts Romanian steel production growth between 2014 and 2018 to show an annual average growth rate of 1.5%.

Growth has been supported by ArcelorMittal Galati's new steel mill in Hunedoara with a EUR43mn rolling mill, which came into operation in Q312. Additionally, the company increased liquid steel production to 700,000tpa to raise output of round semis at its Tubular Products Roman plant. The steelmaker is investing over EUR25.0mn in upgrading and improving production quality...

The Romania Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Romania.

BMI's Romania Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Romania.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romania metals market.

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