New market study, "Portugal Business Forecast Report Q4 2014", has been published

Core Views

* Portugal's exit of its three-year international bailout programme in May 2014 will fail to herald an era of stability for the financially beleaguered country. In addition, the government's recent decision to bailout a private lender will further stoke public discontent with the centre-right government. With general elections to be held in October 2015, we expect public support to continue shifting towards leftist and fringe parties, dimming the outlook for structural reform from 2015 onwards.
* Portugal is poised to register limited current account surpluses over the next few years. However, as import growth recovers with domestic demand, the momentum behind the current account surplus expansion will wane, and we expect the surplus to flip back into deficit by 2018.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/887970_portugal_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301

Forecast Changes

* We have downgraded our forecast for export growth for 2014 - to 3.0% from 5.0% previously - due to a one-off drop in export levels from oil company Galp Energia, following planned maintenance at the company's oil refinery in H114. Our downward revision for exports has also resulted in our adjustment of our current account balance forecast to 0.2% of GDP from 1.0% previously for 2014, and to 0.6% of GDP from 1.5% previously for 2015.

Risks To Outlook

* Upside Risks To Economic Outlook: At present, we do not envisage long-term real GDP growth rising much above 1.7% in the latter part of our long-term forecasts to 2023. However, we would upgrade our forecasts upon evidence that the government's structural economic reform package is making headway.

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The Portugal Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Portugal and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Portugal's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Portugal's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Portugal's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Portugal, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

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