Ukraine Power Report Q4 2014 - New Study Released

The immediate outlook for electricity generation is poor. Fighting in the east of Ukraine has halted coal production in many mines, and blocked the transport lines to power stations. At the same time, Russia has suspended gas deliveries which will seriously limit Ukraine ' s ability to fire its gas-powered stations, once its existing supplies run low. In this context, we forecast a decline in generation to 168.7TWh in 2014, from 179.8TWh last year .

Longer term, both production and consumption will rise as the economy starts to recover, and processes of integration with the EU bring about a partial liberalization of the power sector and investment from abroad. This will create opportunities for investment in Ukraine's power sector. However, multiple barriers stand in the way of developing the sector, including corruption, vested interests and the fractious political environment, meaning that the electricity production will fall far short of Ukraine's potential.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/888206_ukraine_power_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301

Key Trends And Developments

* At the end of August, the government declared an energy emergency. The production of coal has plummeted as a result in conflict in Ukraine's main coal-producing regions in the east of the country. As of late-August, a number of Ukrainian power stations only had enough coal reserves for 2-3 weeks.
* Ukraine also faces a crisis in production of gas-fired power because of the suspension of deliveries of gas from Russia and the high price which Russia is now exacting on future sales, once Ukraine has cleared its debts.
* Consumption is also falling as swathes of eastern Ukraine are left without electricity, as fighting destroys power lines and stations. Instability has also compromised the steel industry, the single main consumer of electricity, exacerbating an existing dip in global demand for steel, which has already been lowering production.
* In response, the government is likely to suspend exports of energy and electricity to neighbouring Belarus, Hungary...

The Ukraine Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Ukraine Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.

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