Just Published: "United States Freight Transport Report Q4 2014"

BMI maintains its positive outlook for the US freight transport sector. Despite a fairly weak start to the year across a range of macroeconomic indicators, we maintain our forecast for US real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2014 from 1.9% in 2013. Our view for gradual strengthening in the US economy through to the end 2014 continues to play out, driven by a tightening labour market and sustained growth in the cyclical components of the economy, notably the residential housing sector and business investment in equipment. On the back of this BMI maintains its cautiously positive outlook on the US freight sector.

A steady improvement in consumer confidence reinforces our view that private consumption will accelerate in 2014. Consumer confidence levels are at post-financial crisis highs, and the employment-to-population ratio hit 59.0% in June 2014, the highest reading since August 2009. We expect these trends to persist in the months ahead, as jobless claims have been low, and business confidence levels are also relatively high, suggesting that hiring will continue apace, further bolstering confidence and supporting consumer spending. As confidence improves, we expect consumers to be relatively more willing to spend on big-ticket items and shift relatively more income away from savings and toward spending, boosting demand for freight transport services.

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In 2014, we anticipate that stronger economic activity in developed markets, particularly in Europe and Canada, will increase demand for US goods and service exports, which we forecast will post real growth of 3.6% this year after 2.5% in 2013.

Key Industry Data

* At the Port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast growth of 2% in total tonnage in 2014, to reach 64.1mn tonnes.
* At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 3% in 2014, to reach 139.1mn tonnes.
* We predict growth of 3.5% in air freight volumes, to reach 38.4bn tonnes-km in 2014.
* We predict growth of 2.4% in rail...

The United States Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United States Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American freight transport and logistics industry.

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