New Market Research Report: Indonesia Shipping Report Q4 2014

Political Risk Coming Back Down After Elections

With the general elections now completed and Joko Wikodo poised to take over from President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, political risk factors are beginning to subside and BMI retains a broadly optimistic outlook for the Indonesian economy. That said, we consider 2014 to be a relatively weak transition year prior to the recovery gathering pace in 2015. First quarter growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year and we expect some further weakening because of the government ban on raw mineral exports and lower investment inflows. The mineral export ban is supposed to encourage more processing inside Indonesia, but we believe few international companies will make the major refinery and smelter investments required, and that the policy will be growth-negative. That said, President-elect Wikodo was clearly the more market-friendly of the two main presidential candidates, so business sentiment will be improving. We also think monetary policy will become more pro-growth. Considering all these factors, we are maintaining our forecast for 5.1% GDP growth in 2014, with the rate picking up to 6.0% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/888084_indonesia_shipping_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301

Our shipping and ports forecast for 2014 shows a significantly slower pace of growth, as the economy cools. We have also cut back the scale of the expected recovery in foreign trade, which we now see edging up only marginally this year. Over the medium to longer term, we continue to believe that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see some evidence of progress on this front.

Headline Industry Data

* 2014 Tanjung Priok total tonnage forecast to grow 5.8% to 56.172mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 6.1% expected over our five-year forecast period to 2018.
* 2014 Palembang total tonnage forecast to grow 4.6% to 12.974mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 3.9% over our forecast period.
* 2014 Tanjung Priok...

The Indonesia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Indonesia.

BMI's Indonesia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Indonesia.

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