Recent Study: United States Food & Drink Report Q4 2014

The US economy will continue to strengthen in 2014, due to sustained improvement in the labour market that will fuel an acceleration in private consumption. We will continue to see positive - although slowing - fixed investment growth this year, and we believe the drag on growth from government expenditure will lessen compared to last year. However, we have revised down our 2014 growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.1% due to a particularly weak Q114. Indeed, real GDP contracted at a seasonally-adjusted, annualised rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of the year, the largest contraction during a period of economic growth in decades. That said, the downward revision is attributable to base effects from Q1 and does not suggest the start of a major slowdown. We believe many of the contributing factors have already begun to recede, suggesting a much stronger second quarter.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/888603_united_states_food_drink_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)

* 2014 per capita food consumption = +2.0%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018 = +4.1%.
* 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.7%; CAGR to 2018 = +3.5%.
* 2014 soft drink value sales = +3.1%; CAGR to 2018 = +1.9%.
* 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.9%; CAGR to 2018 = +2.5%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Premium Paid For Russell Stover Exaggerated

We believe Lindt's acquisition of Russell Stover will increase the company's exposure to North America. The acquisition is motivated by strong potential for growth for premium chocolate in the US. In this context, the premium paid for Russell Stover is exaggerated given the smaller growth potential for box chocolates, low synergies and limited room for cross selling.

Bourbon To Outperform Scotch In 2014 Export Growth

We outlined the view in April 2014 that the export growth prospects for bourbon whiskey - the dominant whiskey category in the US - would be stronger than scotch (from Scotland) in 2014 (see 'Bourbon Exports To Outperform Scotch In 2014', April 11 2014). A key driver of...

The United States Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United States Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in United States.

Key Benefits

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