Recent Study: Poland Food & Drink Report Q4 2014

We hold a positive outlook on the Polish consumer over the next few years, after several years of sluggish growth. We expect real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015, which will be fuelled by strong private expenditure growth.

Household purchasing power will be driven by a combination of low inflation and employment growth. Our Country Risk team believes that there remains considerable slack in the labour market, and our Agribusiness team believes that there is little threat of high food inflation in the coming months. As such, we believe that there is considerable room left for private final consumption growth over the coming quarters.

Russia's ban on agricultural imports from EU countries will damage fruit and vegetables producers in particular in Poland, who export much of their produce to Russia. Fewer exports to Russia, however, is likely to drive down food price inflation in Poland which will be beneficial to consumers.

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In particular, we highlight the beer and discount store sectors as areas for growth. We highlight Jeronimo Martins owned Biedronka as a potential outperformer.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

* 2014 total food consumption growth (local currency): +3.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013-2018: +4.7%.
* 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency): +3.4; CAGR to 2018: +5.0%.
* 2014 soft drinks value sales (local currency): +6.3%; CAGR to 2018: +7.3%.
* 2014 total MGR sales growth (in local currency terms): +3.9%; CAGR to 2018: +6.6%.

Key Industry Trends

Russia Bans Imports Of Agricultural Goods From EU: In August 2014, Russia banned imports of many agricultural goods from select countries, including those from the EU. Restrictions on the sale of these goods will particularly harm the producers of fruit and vegetables in Poland, who rely heavily on Russia for exports. However, the ban is also likely to reduce food price inflation for Polish consumers.

Biedronka Likely To Be Outperformer: We highlight Jeronimo Martins...

The Poland Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Poland Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Poland.

Key Benefits

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