Market Report, "Turkey Metals Report Q1 2015", published

Despite relatively weak growth to be expected over the coming months, the medium-term outlook for Turkey's metals sector remains promising due to strong demand from the domestic construction and autos sectors. Near-term headwinds are likely to include currency weakness making imports of materials more expensive and weak global steel prices squeezing steel-makers' margins. Long-term political risk in Turkey also presents a key downside risk.

Over the medium-term we forecast Turkey's total steel production to grow from 34.7mnt in 2013 to 44.6mnt in 2018. We expect growth to average 5.2% y-o-y over 2014-2018, as we predict a recovery from the negative growth seen during 2013, which was a result of weak global steel prices and a weak lira pushing up the cost of imports of materials.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/904334_turkey_metals_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=301

We expect to see the share prices of Turkey's two largest steel producers, Erdemir and Kardemir, continue to outperform following steady capacity and output growth over 2013.

Downside risks to our five-year forecasts include subdued demand from EU states, depreciation of the Turkish lira raising production costs, political unrest in the country and a global weakening of steel prices. Although we see Turkey's contraction in steel production over 2013 as a temporary slowdown in a larger growth picture, weak steel prices will continue to prevent a more rapid growth rate.

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