Recent Study: Philippines Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Nov 26 2014


Core Views

• We continue to hold a positive outlook for the Philippine economy, and are forecasting for real GDP growth to come in at 6.3% in 2014. However, tighter monetary policy in 2015 is likely to cause real GDP growth to ease to 6.0%.

•We continue to see the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raise its benchmark interest rate by another 50 basis points to 4.50% in 2015, owing to continued price pressures emanating from a potential electricity shortage in Luzon and likely interest rate normalisation in the US in the coming year.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/900632_philippines_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=301

•Ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts by the Philippine government will ensure a sustainable budgetary trajectory over the coming years. We forecast for the country's budget deficit to narrow to 0.8% of GDP in 2014 and 0.6% in 2015, from 1.4% in 2013. However, the lacklustre fiscal spending will be a drag on growth.

•The Philippine peso should stay largely resilient despite USD strength. We are forecasting for the unit to average PHP44.50/USD in 2014 and PHP43.71/USD in 2015. A combination of still-positive economic growth outlook, strong foreign inflows and an improving external position should provide structural support to the peso.

Major Forecast Changes

•We have revised our 2015 benchmark interest rate forecast to 4.50%, from our previous estimate of 4.00%.

•We have revised our forecast for the Philippine peso to average PHP44.50/USD in 2014, from our earlier estimate of PHP44.00/USD.

Key Risks To Outlook

•The Philippines remains at risk of substantial hot money outflows in the event of acute global credit or financial market stresses.

•Growth slowdowns in both China and Japan, to which the Philippines is heavily exposed in both investment and trade terms, could undermine the country's strong domestic growth story should they be more severe than expected.

•The largest risk to our medium-term peso view comes from the potential for a devaluation of the Chinese yuan by the People's Bank of China in a bid to support...

The Philippines Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Philippines and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Philippines' economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Philippines' economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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