Just Published: "Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q1 2015"

Core Views

* Real GDP growth in Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) will accelerate in 2015, driven by stronger activity in non-energy sectors of the economy and a modest increase in energy sector output. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.0% next year, up from our projection of 2.6% this year.
* Monetary policy in T&T will gradually tighten over the coming quarters, as the central bank responds to rising inflation by hiking interest rates. The benchmark policy rate will rise by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25% by end-2014, and by an additional 50bps to 3.75% by end-2015.
* T&T will continue to run large current account surpluses in the coming years, as an uptick in oil and gas production helps to offset lower energy prices. Rising foreign investment and a strong reserves position will also reinforce the stability of the islands' external accounts, providing a buffer against a potential sharper drop in global oil prices.
* Stronger real GDP growth will bolster Trinidadian government revenues in the coming years. This, combined with a pull-back in social spending, will lead to a narrowing of the budget deficit beginning in 2015.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/912231_trinidad_tobago_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes:

* Given Trinidadian policymakers' stated goal of diversifying the economy away from a reliance on energy exports, weakening the exchange rate offers a clear route to boosting the country's petrochemical and agricultural industries. As such, we have revised down our average exchange rate forecasts to TTD6.550/USD (from TTD/6.400/USD) and TTD6.650/USD (from TTD6.500/USD) for 2015 and 2016, respectively, compared to our projected average of TTD6.344/USD in 2014.

Key Risks To Outlook

* The main risk to our exchange rate forecasts would be a sharp drop in the price of oil ( see 'Brent At USD60/bbl A Realistic Scenario', October 9). Should weakening global demand see global oil prices trade in the USD60-80/bbl range over the coming years, the drop in T&T's exports revenues could lead to a sharp narrowing of the current account...

The Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Trinidad & Tobago and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Trinidad & Tobago's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of The Trinidad & Tobago's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

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