Bahrain Business Forecast Report Q1 2015 - New Study Released

Core Views

* In light of record oil revenues and the weakness of private investment, we expect public spending to outperform over the coming quarters, which should support activity in the non-hydrocarbon economy. Efforts to address the shortage of affordable housing will see government CAPEX accelerate.
* We do not believe that weaker oil prices will derail the Bahraini government's investment plans, ensuring a continued source of support for the country's economy. Real GDP growth will reach 3.8% in 2015 and 2016, compared to an annual average of 3.6% between 2009 and 2013.
* Bahrain's reputation as a stable and welcoming location to do business in the Gulf has suffered as a result of the volatile political climate. At the moment, it remains to be seen if Manama will be able to compete with Doha and Dubai in attracting investment into the all-important hospitality and financial services industry.
* The economy's medium-term outlook remains contingent upon a lasting solution being found to the current political crisis. Unfortunately, we maintain our relatively guarded outlook on the prospects that the government and opposition can come to some form of agreement in the near term.
* Bahrain's weak medium-term fiscal prospects will force the government to make difficult choices. We believe that Manama will have little option but to introduce new taxes over the coming years, while the issue of spending consolidation will loom large on the agenda. Support from Saudi Arabia could delay these pressures, but would entail a significant loss of sovereignty.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/912214_bahrain_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=301

Key Risks To Outlook

* A more pronounced regional crisis stemming from an uptick in tensions between Iran and the West could see risk premiums spike higher, particularly for Bahrain.
* A marked drop in oil prices concomitant with a slowdown in growth in Europe, the US and China would pose a significant risk to the country's near-term growth outlook, and likely lead to a marked deterioration to the country's balance...

The Bahrain Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Bahrain and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Bahrain's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Bahrain's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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