Venezuela Business Forecast Report Q1 2015: New research report available at Fast Market Research

Core Views

* We expect economic growth to remain sluggish, characterised by a slowdown in private consumption, net exports, and investment. The negative outlook has deteriorated further amid falling oil prices.
* President Nicolás Maduro has consolidated his position at the helm of the PSUV, but his popularity has waned amid economic difficulties affecting all segments of society. He will continue his predecessor's policies of elevated social spending, resulting in sizeable fiscal deficits.
* Inflation will remain elevated, at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/912234_venezuela_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes

* We have downgraded our GDP forecast for the next several years, amid a growing number of business closures, soaring inflation, and a downgrade to our oil forecasts. We now forecast real GDP to contract by 2.0% in 2014, and expand by only 0.8% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016, compared to our previous forecasts for the three years of 0.5%, 1.2%, and 2.5%.
* Also due to our oil price downgrade, we have downwardly adjusted our fiscal account forecasts, to 12.6% of GDP in 2014 (compared to our previous estimate of 8.8%), which we expect will narrow only slightly to 10.3% in 2015.
* Lower oil prices are also negative for Venezuela's balance of payments position, and we have downgraded our current account to 1.4% of GDP in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016, from 3.3% and 2.7% of GDP, respectively

Key Risks To Outlook

* Upside Risks: If the Maduro administration were to decide to take steps towards meaningful economic reforms, investor sentiment would rebound relatively quickly, lowering financing costs and increasing FDI inflows.
* Downside Risks: The potential for elevated political tensions to materialise in a wider political crisis could result in a further deterioration of investor sentiment and lower economic growth. Although we have already downgraded our oil price forecasts, we...

The Venezuela Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Venezuela and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Venezuela's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Venezuela's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
- Nigeria Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
- Vietnam Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
- Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q1 2015