Recent Study: Indonesia Shipping Report Q1 2015

Mixed Outlook For Indonesian Ports In 2015

Our shipping and ports forecast for 2015 shows growth rates picking up pace slightly at the port of Tanjung Priok, while they will decelerate a little at the smaller facility at Palembang. This reflects the slightly mixed freight demand picture as the Indonesian economy is set to slow marginally, while foreign trade picks up pace compared to 2014. Over the medium- to long-term, we continue to believe that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see continuing evidence of progress on this front.

BMI is trimming back its forecast for Indonesian GDP growth in 2015 by half a percentage point to 5.5%, down from 6.0% previously. We are maintaining our estimate for 2014 growth at 5.1%. The main reasons for being more cautious about the outlook in 2015, are the combined effects of tighter monetary policy, the adjustment caused by the reduction of petrol price subsidies, and a mixed export outlook, influenced by the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Bank Indonesia (BI) has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy bias over recent quarters despite a falling rate of headline inflation. However, the decision by the new administration of President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo to slash petrol price subsidies in November is expected to give a short-term boost to inflation and therefore persuade BI to maintain higher interest rates. Other growth-negative factors are also at work, such as the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Investment has eased back. Despite this, BMI remains optimistic about the medium-term outlook for the country, and in the period running up to 2019 we expect GDP growth to average a healthy 6.3%.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924177_indonesia_shipping_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=301

Headline Industry Data

* 2015 Tanjung Priok total tonnage forecast to grow 5.9% to 40.212mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 6.3% expected over our five-year forecast period (2015-2019).
* 2015 Palembang total tonnage...

The Indonesia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Indonesia.

BMI's Indonesia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Indonesia.

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