"Central America Infrastructure Report Q1 2015" Published

We currently forecast an average of 3.43.3% real growth in Central America's construction industry value for 20145 (excluding Panama) which is considerably higher than our regional average estimate for 2014 at 0.2% (excluding Panama). We expect Nicaragua's construction industry to return to positive in 2015 while Panama's will contract, as the completion of the Canal expansion nears its end.

We see high risks, small scale and limited growth opportunities across the region as a whole. A crucial factor underpinning our forecasts for infrastructure investments in future years is political and security risk. This is a particular concern in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala where high levels of crime, homicide, violence, and insecurity exacerbate operational risks for companies willing to invest in those countries. As such, we believe that local and regional companies (especially Mexican and Brazilian), as well as Chinese players which have a stronger appetite for risk, are best placed to benefit from the opportunities on offer in the region. In this context, we also highlight Spanish companies which have an established presence in the region.

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Despite the small size of their construction industries, Central American countries present a wide range of small-scale opportunities (albeit the inter-oceanic canal projects) as the region aims to bridge its infrastructure gap. However, these markets are faced by strong challenges in the form of deep-run corruption, high levels of inequality, and unsophisticated institutions.

* Public-Private Partnerships: A number of countries in the region are pursuing public-private partnerships (PPPs) to develop infrastructure. For example, Guatemala - which established a PPP agency in November 2011 - is hoping to launch its first concession for Line 1 of the Guatemala City passenger railway in Q115. In April 2013, Honduras' public-private promotion agency, Coalianza, released the tender for construction and operation of...

The Central America Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Central America Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Panamanian, Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Belizean, Honduran infrastructure and construction industry.

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