New Market Research Report: Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q1 2015

After a year of crisis, Ukraine's telecoms sector enters 2015 focused on the likelihood that 3G mobile licences will finally be auctioned. At least three concessions will be offered, potentially allowing all three of the principal operators to transition away from their low-value 2G businesses. However, a major complication is that the government will block the participation of Russia-backed players, which would include market leaders MTS and VimpelCom . It is unlikely that they will accept this decision, meaning that protracted legal challenges could be on the horizon, potentially delaying the auction indefinitely. With smartphone penetration reaching 21% for MTS and VimpelCom and 34% for Life as of Q314, it is clear that there is pent-up demand for advanced services. While we have adjusted our forecasts for 3G adoption to show a slower rate of growth, we also posit a much slower rate of mobile ARPU decline, in light of a recent spike in value-added service usage. However, our outlook continues to hang in the balance while shadows hang over both the 3G auction and Russia's frosty relationship with Ukraine.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/944814_ukraine_telecommunications_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=301

Key Data

* The uptake of broadband services is low, with penetration estimated to have reached just 17.7% at the end of 2014.
* Assuming the 3G auction is not permanently derailed in 2015, and anticipating the commercialisation of services by the 'Big Three' by mid-2016, 3G subscription numbers will reach 2.112mn by 2018. We also assume at least some disgruntled TriMob 3G customers will be cannibalised by the new networks.
* Mobile ARPU - buoyed by increased usage of voice, messaging and data services in 2014 - recorded positive growth over the year. This will be a short-lived respite from ARPU erosion as price competition will continue to undermine operators' revenue growth strategies. A modest decline is now foreseen - to UAH37.0 by the end of 2018 - as the power of millions of smartphones already in widespread use is finally...

The Ukraine Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Ukraine's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Ukraine Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Ukraine.

Key Benefits

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