Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q2 2015 - New Market Research Report

Increases in export duties on both sugar and wheat - both announced towards the end of 2014 - are indicators of the government's willingness to support the interests of producers over consumers. Sugar prices in particular remain elevated in Pakistan compared to prices on the world market. Prices for Pakistan's core agricultural commodities have generally been weak in 2014 and Q115, but we see rice and cotton in particular gathering support in 2015 and over the later years of our forecast period to 2019. We therefore see a better outlook for Pakistani exports of cotton and rice, but we note that higher cotton prices also pose a risk to our consumption forecasts as Pakistani textile mills remain dependant on imports for the higher quality yarns.

Key Forecasts

* Cotton consumption growth to 201 9 : 12.6 % to 11.7 mn 480lb bales. Favourable trade agreements with the EU will see an increase in demand from the textile industry, but higher prices will see growth rates moderate in the later years of the forecast period.
* Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 11.7 % to 27 . 0 mn tonnes. Production growth will be modest as farmers struggle with rising input costs, particularly fuel and fertiliser.
* 2015 real GDP growth: 4.0%. Down from 4.1% in 2014.
* Consumer price inflation: 4.5 % in 2015 (down from 8.6% in 2014).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD 31.2b n in 2015 (up 3.0% from USD30.3bn in 2014; forecast to grow annually by 3.5% on average to 2019).

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/951123_pakistan_agribusiness_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=301

Industry Developments

The finance ministry announced a 20% tariff on wheat imports in November in an effort to prevent local producers being undercut by exports of cheaper Black Sea grain. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2014/15 wheat imports reached 275,000 tonnes by September. A USDA report on the policy states that the tariff increase will price imported wheat out of the market as both local and Black...

The Pakistan Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Pakistan Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.



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