Turkey Agribusiness Report Q2 2015: New research report available at Fast Market Research

We favour the sugar sector in Turkey because of the strong growth potential of the country's confectionery industry and our belief that large changes to the country's sugar production quotas are likely to occur in the coming years. We see upside potential in the livestock sector, as the government's supply of discounted credit has aided growth in recent years. We see some growth potential for the grain, dairy and rice sectors and production in these sectors will recover in 2015/16 following drought in 2014.

Key Forecasts

* Wheat production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 5.0% to 18.9mn tonnes.We expect the country to remain a large importer of wheat over the medium term despite reasonably strong domestic production growth.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2019: 14.0% to 2.6mn tonnes. This will be in line with strong growth in the confectionery industry and our belief that production quotas will be reformed.
* 2015 real GDP growth: 3.5%, up from 2.9% in 2014.
* Consumer price inflation: 7.2% average in 2015, down from 8.8% average in 2014.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 7.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to USD63.3bn in 2015/16, forecast to increase by an annual average of 4.9% between 2015/16 and 2018/19.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/953271_turkey_agribusiness_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=301

Key Developments

Following the drought-affected harvest of 2014/15, we expect y-o-y grain production in 2015/16 to increase considerably based on our assumption of average weather conditions. We do not believe that production will rebound straight away to 2013/14 levels, as farmers have limited credit owing to poor earnings in 2014 and low global crop prices will limit the incentive to produce grains in marginal areas.

We forecast sugar production growth of 3.0% y-o-y in 2015/16, and growth will remain strong out to 2018/19 as we believe changes will be made to the country's production quota. In early 2014, the country's Sugar Board prepared a draft regulation to change...

The Turkey Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Turkey Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.



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